Water ExiaTier 2
at HIDEOUT'S RDO STORE CHAMPS
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1320
· median 1320
· range 1320–1320
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1252
Q3 1418
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 19.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
